After Rebel Rule: Rebel Governance and Post-Conflict Development

Paper Abstract

What are the short-term consequences of rebel rule for post-conflict development? A burgeoning literature documents the legacies of violent conflict for long-term civil and economic development. However, less is known on the short-term legacies of rebel governance, particularly resilience toward immediate post-conflict shocks. We argue rebel governance can have varying effects for post-conflict development and resilience depending on whether communities are exposed in the short or long term. Taking the case of ISIS governance in Iraq, we expect communities exposed for particularly long periods of time to have a better capacity to deal with shocks in the immediate aftermath of conflict compared with those exposed in the short term. We test our expectations combining highly disaggregated survey and remote sensing data on over 3,700 villages with focus group discussions across Iraq. We find support for our claims. Our findings unveil insights on when and which legacies of rebel governance permeate and offer potential entry points for interventions to facilitate state-building after war.

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